what has to happen for bills to go to playoffs

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — While the Buffalo Bills have won the last two AFC E sectionalization crowns and advanced to the AFC Championship Game last season, there is a sense in Western New York that there's however something missing from the resume they are compiling under double-decker Sean McDermott.

Afterwards embarrassing the Bills for well-nigh two decades, a dominance past 1 NFL team or some other that was nearly unprecedented, the New England Patriots still hold some sway over Buffalo.

Defensive end Jerry Hughes tried to downplay information technology, saying, "Fifty-fifty though we've struggled with that arrangement in the by, nosotros don't put too much emphasis on who nosotros're playing. We're just excited to become out there and play and handle business concern. And I retrieve that'south what makes this group of guys then great, considering they're competitors. It doesn't matter who they're playing, it doesn't matter what time of day, the weather, where the location is, it'll exist on water ice on a Saturday, Dominicus night, they're going to show upwards ready to roll."

And that'due south fine, only beating the Patriots — specially for as long Bill Belichick is there — will nevertheless mean more than beating anyone else.

The Bills take had the better of the matchups in the last two years, winning iii of iv, and have grabbed control of the division after the Patriots had a nearly unimpeded stranglehold on it between 2001 and 2019. But the opportunity to defeat Belichick in the postseason is something that would bring further legitimacy to Buffalo'due south recent success.

That chance arrives Saturday dark in an AFC wild-menu game at Highmark Stadium that will likely get down as one of the coldest games in league history.

"I think for united states of america it's just going to be an old-schoolhouse slobber-knocker," said Hughes. "Nosotros've seen them ii times this twelvemonth. The third time is like Ali said. It's that whole Thrilla in Manilla blazon thing. It'due south going to be fun. The ice is going to be there, the cold is going to be there, it's going to be Buffalo Bills football. So we're going to demand to exist mentally tough, it'due south going to exist physical. We're excited for the challenge."

Cold-Atmospheric condition GAMES:Who has the advantage in the frigid Bills-Patriots game?

What to lookout for in Saturday's AFC wild-card playoff game:

1. Bills demand to force the Patriots to rely on QB Mac Jones

This did not happen in the starting time meeting Dec. half dozen when gale forcefulness winds convinced the Patriots coaching staff to neuter the rookie and have him endeavour simply three passes while relying on a strong running game during a fourteen-10 New England victory.

Despite knowing that the Patriots would be running on almost every play, the Bills were unable to stop it as Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden produced a 222-thousand gashing, keyed by Harris' 64-yard TD run that gave the Patriots a kickoff-quarter lead they never relinquished.

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In relatively beneficial conditions the twenty-four hours after Christmas at Foxborough, the Bills still had a tough time against the run, particularly with Harris who rushed for 103 of New England's 149 yards. But because the Bills were able to play from in forepart, they forced the Patriots to lean more on Jones and he could not deliver.

Jones completed just 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards and threw 2 interceptions. When the Bills pressured Jones he was 2 of 10 for 21 yards with one option, and Buffalo's outstanding secondary — which ranked No. one in the league this season — completely shut down New England'south group of laissez passer catchers, especially on third down as the Patriots were a gruesome one-of-10.

The Bills need to follow the same script from that second game where they got on top early on and dictated how the game was played. New England had to react to everything the Bills were doing, and in the terminate, Buffalo rolled 33-21. In the three losses they had in their terminal four games, the Patriots were outscored by a combined 37 points in the first half.

2. Winning at the line of scrimmage could be decisive

This was a problem for the Bills on both sides of the ball at various points during the flavour. A team that was expected to run away and hide with the AFC East title was sitting at 7-6 and ii games behind New England with iv weeks to get, and a large reason was that Buffalo'due south big men were underperforming.

On defence, despite several additions in the past few years via the draft and free agency, the line was not getting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, nor was it holding upwards particularly well at the indicate of attack. Never was this more apparent than when Tennessee'southward Derrick Henry, Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor, and so the Patriots 3-headed crew ran vicious and the Bills lost all three of those games.

However, things have changed.

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In endmost the flavour with iv wins to merits the division, the Bills have recorded 19 sacks and they wound upwardly tied for 10th in yards allowed per rushing attempt at 4.2 equally DTs Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips have been outstanding.

On law-breaking, the line really had a tough time coming together equally the Bills were forced to mix and lucifer combinations due to injuries and COVID-19. But later on left baby-sit Ike Boettger went down during the Dec. 12 loss to Tampa Bay, Ryan Bates took over and always since, the Bills have shown peachy improvement.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins made the Pro Bowl, center Mitch Morse has been rock solid, right guard Daryl Williams is back in the position where he belongs, and rookie right tackle Spencer Brown remains a physical force in the run game.

Equally Hughes said, with the expected weather probable hindering both offenses, this is going to be a physical game and winning at the line of scrimmage will be imperative.

3. Josh Allen needs to be Josh Allen

Who knows where Jones' career arc will take him, just right now, the reality is that Buffalo has the better QB, a budding superstar, and Allen has already shown the Patriots how magnificent he can be. Merely put on the record of the concluding ii games he has played at Gillette Stadium.

When Allen plays like he did on those days, the Bills' criminal offence is extremely difficult to end. He uses his cannon of an arm to burn balls into tight windows that not many QBs can pull off, and and then he has the high-voltage ability to shred a defense when he leaves the pocket, either on a scramble or a designed run.

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The Patriots had no answers on Dec. 26 when he threw for 314 yards and ran for 64. "Josh is one of the best players in the league," said Belichick. "Dynamic player, the ball is in his hands a lot, he can practise a lot of things with it, make all the throws at all levels of the field, obviously run with the ball, scramble, extend plays, and throw it. He's a tough guy to terminate."

Simply this is where the weather might come into play. In the frigid atmospheric condition, even the greatest players can be hamstrung and will surrender some of their athleticism and that would certainly work against Buffalo.

The Bills need Allen to be effective every bit a passer because even though they have run the ball improve lately with Devin Singletary, they are however not an criminal offense that can line up and batter defenses on the footing. They must be multi-dimensional to unleash the total forcefulness of their offense and Allen and his array of receivers volition have to find a way to overcome the weather, not to mention do it against a very practiced Patriots defense force.

4. Other cardinal points to consider in Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots matchup

► This is the Bills 35th playoff game in team history (16-18 record); the Patriots take won 37 playoff games, nearly in NFL history.

► Incredibly, this is the get-go fourth dimension since 1998 that the Patriots have entered the postseason as a wild-carte team. They take played in the wild-card circular four times every bit a segmentation champion under Belichick, but this is the first time they will be going on the road.

► The Patriots are 6-ane when they rush for over 140 yards including 1-i against the Bills.

► The Patriots are 8-0 when they win the turnover boxing, 1-6 when they lose it, 1-1 when it'due south even.

► The Patriots spent big money in free agency on TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, simply in the last game against Buffalo, they combined for 1 grab on six targets for ix yards.

► The Bills receivers didn't always assistance Allen as they combined for xxx dropped passes, the sixth-highest total whatsoever QB suffered.

► Devin Singletary's six TDs in the last four games were tied for the most in the NFL over that span.

► Buffalo led the NFL with a point differential of plus-194 which set a franchise record. At plus-159, the Patriots were third in betoken differential.

► Mainly because Mac Jones threw an atrocious lot of curt passes, the Patriots fix a team record for completion percentage at 68%.

► New England had three punts blocked this season, the near e'er for a Belichick squad.

Sal Maiorana's prediction: Bills xx, Patriots 13

There's no doubt in my mind that this is the virtually intriguing matchup of wild-bill of fare weekend because of the history between these 2 teams and the fact that the Bills are still fighting to put nigh 20 years of humiliation at the hands of New England behind them. Yes, Rams vs. Cardinals too features a bounded matchup, simply that pales in comparison to Bills-Patriots.

The force per unit area is squarely on Buffalo. Sean McDermott has the better roster on both sides of the ball and it feels like the just way the Bills tin lose is if they simply have a sloppy performance and paw information technology to New England via turnovers, penalties, missed assignments, whatever.

Atmospheric condition figures to be an equalizer, though, and Allen and the Bills are going to have to ascent above it, while the Buffalo defense will have to make certain information technology's sound against the Patriots ground assault. I think the Bills will achieve both objectives and win a tight game that volition be in uncertainty well into the 4th quarter.

Talking points

► Patriots coach Beak Belichick on playing the Bills for a tertiary time: "I'd say what'south a petty bit dissimilar most this 1 is only how apace we've played Buffalo with a couple of weeks in betwixt each of the games. We know each other well. I'grand sure there'll exist wrinkles, I'm certain there'll be things that both teams volition practise that endeavour to go along the other squad off residual or to give them a lilliputian bit of a dissimilar expect. I call up that's just part of it, whether it'due south 3 games or you play a team twice every year for multiple years."

► Patriots QB Mac Jones on the Bills: "I recollect nosotros're very familiar with their players and they are very familiar with usa. We just have to go in that location and trust the coaches and our game plan and just execute it a little better than nosotros accept in the by games. That'southward what it comes downwards to, execution, and evidently like I said, the teams know each other actually well and we take the about respect for the Bills."

► Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy: "It'southward 0-0 to playoff game. The Bills won the division. They're playing at home. We gotta go up there and win. We have to prepare like this week's the terminal calendar week. I mean, it's all on the line. We take to go in there and be on the top of our game. It hasn't been working, but what better week to start than this week confronting a really skillful team on the route? I'g excited for the challenge, I'thou excited to play in a playoff game for all the marbles, and and then move on to piece of work some other week and get some other opportunity."

NFL rankings

Bills                           Patriots

Total offense:381.9 yards (5th);      353.4 (15th)

Rush offense:129.9 yards (6th);      126.5 (8th)

Pass crime:252.0 yards (9th);      226.ix (14th)

Points scored:     28.4 (third);                 27.two (6th)

Total defence force:272.8 yards (1st);     310.8 (4th)

Rush defense force:     109.eight yards (13th);   123.seven (22nd)

Pass defense:163.0 yards (1st);     187.1 (2nd)

Points immune:17.0 (1st);                 17.8 (2nd)

Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots private leaders

Rushing

Bills: Devin Singletary 188 carries, 870 yards; Josh Allen 122-763; Zack Moss 96-345; Matt Breida 26-125; Isaiah McKenzie 9-47; Emmanuel Sanders 2-31; Mitchell Trubisky thirteen-24.

Patriots: Damien Harris 202-929; Rhamondre Stevenson 133-606; Brandon Bolden 44-226; Mac Jones 44-129; Kendrick Bourne 12-125; Jonnu Smith 9-40; James White 10-38; J.J. Taylor 19-37.

Passing

Bills: Josh Allen 409 of 646, 4,407 yards, 36 TDs,15 interceptions.

Patriots: Mac Jones 352 of 521, three,801 yards, 22 TDs, thirteen interceptions.

Receiving

Bills: Stefon Diggs 103 catches, 1,225 yards; Cole Beasley 82-693; Dawson Knox 49-587; Emmanuel Sanders 42-626; Devin Singletary 40-228; Gabriel Davis 35-549; Zack Moss 23-197; Isaiah McKenzie 20-178; Tommy Sweeney ix-44; Matt Breida 7-72.

Patriots: Jakobi Meyers 83-866; Kendrick Bourne 55-800; Hunter Henry 50-603; Brandon Bolden 41-405; Nelson Agholor 37-473; Jonnu Smith 28-294; Damien Harris 18-132; Rhamondre Stevenson 14-123; Due north'Keal Harry 12-184; James White 12-94.

Sal Maiorana tin can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.

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Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2022/01/15/buffalo-bills-new-england-patriots-nfl-wild-card-game-preview-prediction/6540502001/

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